SAWE Technical Papers

@inproceedings{3772,

title = {3772. Scenario-based Prediction of Lightweight Costs - an Approach across Industries},

author = {Florian Wätzold},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-3772},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-11-01},

urldate = {2021-11-01},

booktitle = {2021 SAWE Tech Fair},

pages = {38},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Virtual Conference},

abstract = {To decide on which technology is best for a vehicle in development, technical and economical constraints need to be considered. The objective of this paper is to provide a generic, conceptual approach to estimating the value (€ or $) per weight unit (kg or lb), referred as lightweight cost, for all industries. It combines general project management and cost estimation techniques with mass property management. As cost and weight are unknown until the actual weighing or billing, this paper focuses on scenario-based assumptions. For an easy understanding, this lens is applied to a recently developed battery concept. 

The described approach integrates basic project management processes such as risk management, estimation considerations and cost assessment. In this pursuit, mass and cost are rolled-up based on the breakdown structure. Taking the uncertainties into account a most likely, best, and worst case are evaluated and a cone of respective lightweight cost is generated. For the ease of use in industrial daily business exactly one value per pound for decision making is derived, condensing the lightweight cost range by superimposing the mass and cost according to their specific scenario probability.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound, Student Papers},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{3177,

title = {3177. Delta III Cost and Weight Summary Analysis (A Process-Oriented Case Study)},

author = {Michael F. Masters},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-3177},

year  = {2001},

date = {2001-05-01},

booktitle = {60th Annual Conference, Arlington, Texas, May 19-23},

pages = {7},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Arlington, Texas},

abstract = {This paper provides highlights of and insights into the Delta III program engineering development costs. Our task involved classifying more than 6,000 accounting records from multiple facility sites into a useful cost element (CE) structure for analysis. We supplemented this activity by interviewing more than 25 people; most were integrated product team (IPT) leaders. As a result, two types of cost estimating relationships (CERs) were derived. The first is noncost-to-cost and is expressed as design engineering hours per pound of hardware design. The second is a cost- to-cost relationship where design support is calculated as a percent of design cost. Finally, we also have included sections addressing concerns and presenting recommendations.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{2321,

title = {2321. Cost Model of Wiring Harness and Tubing Assembly},

author = {W W Wun and J W Pocock},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2321},

year  = {1996},

date = {1996-06-01},

booktitle = {55th Annual Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, June 3-5},

pages = {12},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Atlanta, Georgia},

abstract = {This paper presents the Cost Model of Wiring Harness and Tubing Assembly. Specifically, the cost estimating relationships (CERs) developed for this model address: Installation of wire harnesses and cable assemblies. Installation of tubing assemblies, based on three different tubing applications: hydraulic systems, fuel systems, and environmental control systems. The information presented in this paper includes: Methodology for developing appropriate CERs. Specifically, the methodology included identification of requirements, data gathering, and the development and validation of the CERs. Basic mathematical methods and tools required to develop the CERs. Least squares data fitting was accomplished by implementing the singular value decomposition method and the method of Gaussian elimination. CERs developed based on linear logarithmic model. CER performance was evaluated based on constants and variables identified by the responsible manufacturing organizations. Typical variables are related to (1) the set-up time, (2) the number of cables/tubes, (3) the total length, (4) the number of associated documents, and (5) the number of pieces of hardware in the installation kit. Performance statistics for each CER.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{2322,

title = {2322. Artificial Intelligence and Parametric Cost Analysis},

author = {J J Gilliland},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2322},

year  = {1996},

date = {1996-06-01},

booktitle = {55th Annual Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, June 3-5},

pages = {11},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Atlanta, Georgia},

abstract = {The need for reliable parametric cost information in the early design stage is paramount in both the commercial and military aircraft industries. This cost information is typically used for establishment of market prices, design-to-cost targets and decision support for evaluation of bid decisions and proposals. Northrop Grumman' s Commercial Aircraft Division (CAD) has combined Artificial Intelligence techniques and Parametric Cost Analyses to provide our management the opportunity to make informed decisions regarding the cost of an aircraft or aircraft component in the concept development or requirements phase of a program. This paper is presented to show an overview of CAD's method of Artificial Intelligence and Parametric Analysis techniques already in use.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{2269,

title = {2269. Cost and Weight Considerations for Transportation Systems},

author = {Ian O. MacConochie},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2269},

year  = {1995},

date = {1995-05-01},

booktitle = {54th Annual Conference, Huntsville, Alabama, May 22-24},

pages = {15},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Huntsville, Alabama},

abstract = {A number of alternatives are being examined under cooperative agreements between NASA and the aerospace industry for reusable launch vehicles that can transport cargo and personnel economically to and from space. The trades involved are complex and difficult to make. A discussion of some of the trades that are involved include vehicle body shape (circular versus oblate), oxidizer forward versus aft, and cargo bay shape and size. Preliminary proposals from the aerospace industry include a lifting body, a wing-body, and a conically-shaped vehicle that takes off and lands vertically. The first phase of the study is to last fifteen months at which point a decision will be made as to whether or not an experimental vehicle or vehicles will be built.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{2216,

title = {2216. Cost and Weight Relationships for Space Flight Hardware},

author = {J W Hamaker},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2216},

year  = {1994},

date = {1994-05-01},

booktitle = {53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25},

pages = {6},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Long Beach, California},

abstract = {Cost estimating of space flight hardware is routinely performed using statistical relationships that predict cost as a function of some physical and/or programmatic variables. These relationships are called cost estimating relationships or CERs. By far, the most popular dependent variable for CERs for predicting the cost of space flight hardware is dry weight. Weight is popular both for basically two reasons. First, weight is a very critical parameter due to the lifting restraints of launch vehicles and is one of the very first variables quantified in space project studies. Secondly, weight turns out to be a fairly reliable predictor of space hardware cost. Exhibit 1 shows a typical CER which relates development cost of several classes of space hardware projects to the dry weight of the hardware.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{2218,

title = {2218. Non-Weight Based Cost Modeling},

author = {C J Meisl},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2218},

year  = {1994},

date = {1994-05-01},

booktitle = {53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25},

pages = {16},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Long Beach, California},

abstract = {This paper discusses the advantages of non-weight based cost models and uses launch vehicle rocket engine cost modeling as an example. Top level parametric cost models were generated for pump-fed liquid bipropellant booster and upper stage rocket engines in the 20 Klbs to 2000 Klbs thrust class. The models cover production and full scale development costs and are based on thorough engineering analysis, not regression analysis, using data from historical rocket engines, potential engine derivatives and proposed new engine concepts. The models depend on thermodynamic cycle, propellant type, thrust level, engine complexity, engine maturity and other design parameters. The models are simple cost estimating relationships (CERs) with a transparent rationale and an accuracy of 10 to 30%, depending on the engineering expertise used in the generation of the input variables. The format of the models and the rationale behind them are given in this paper. The cost models make use of adjective and objective parameters. For the adjective inputs, metric scales are given to convert them into numerical values. The adjective inputs require good engineering understanding of rocket engine design and manufacturing principles. Several programmatic and manufacturing process improvement factors are incorporated to extend the applicability of the historical data based cost models to new reusable or expendable advanced performance and/or to low cost engine concepts. The validity and reasonableness of the cost models were successfully checked against detailed cost data of the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) and against current manufacturing and programmatic analysis results of new engines. A comparative (non-quantitative) evaluation of these new rocket engine cost models with existing weight based models such as TRANSCOST, PRICE-H predictions and a Tecolote Research Inc. originated model is also contained in the paper.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{2219,

title = {2219. Modeling System Architectures},

author = {S Lucas},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2219},

year  = {1994},

date = {1994-05-01},

booktitle = {53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25},

pages = {10},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Long Beach, California},

abstract = {Many potential systems are being studied for 21st Century implementation. Affordability is the key to survival in the aerospace industry, and major reductions in the defense budget are contributing to defense industrial base restructuring. With fewer new business opportunities, companies can maintain a competitive edge only if they are able to make strategic decisions to determine appropriate product lines to pursue for new business opportunities. It is essential to conduct architecture studies to identify viable company products for the defense market as it will exist in ten to twenty years. Market analyses can identify appropriate product lines that impact future business and contribute to company longevity. Defense technologies are rapidly being transferred to the commercial market place where cost competitiveness drives the market. Conversely, the commercial market is having an impact on technological development. Previously, defense firms had the luxury of building technologically advanced, complex, but expensive defense systems. Now it is increasingly likely that companies win contracts due to their ability to deliver cost effective systems. Accurate system architecture life cycle cost assessments are essential, with least expensive design options selected early in the design process. In early architecture study stages most model parameters are difficult to assess with any degree of fidelity. Traditional cost analysis methods are insufficient to evaluate future system architecture costs accurately. Knowledge base models are the wave of the future. With only a few high level input values specified, values for each input parameter derive from industry data. The analyst can insert company specific values where known, and store tailored knowledge bases for similar future company projects. Knowledge bases also facilitate interaction with engineers by presenting a set of input values to critique. Knowledge base models simplify the process of modeling system architectures with no unreasonable loss of accuracy.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{2228,

title = {2228. Aircraft Cost Estimation Methodology and Value of a Pound Derivation for Preliminary Design Development Applications},

author = {J W Burns},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2228},

year  = {1994},

date = {1994-05-01},

booktitle = {53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25},

pages = {44},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Long Beach, California},

abstract = {During the early design phases of new aircraft programs, it is desirable to have an established ''value of a pound'' to use as a guide for making decisions that contribute to the optimum weight, cost, and life cycle cost of the aircraft. The objective of this paper is to present a procedure for establishing preliminary ''value of a pound'' guidelines for use during preliminary design and the early design development phase of aircraft programs. Aircraft flyaway unit cost and the operational life cycle fuel cost resulting from variations in aircraft weight are necessary to establish the value of a pound for both military and commercial aircraft, This approach includes a quick and easy method for estimating aircraft development cost, unit flyaway cost, recurring cost per pound of aircraft structure, life cycle fuel cost, and the effect of weight on life cycle fuel cost.},

note = {L. R. 'Mike' Hackney Award},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound, Mike Hackney Best Paper Award},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{2156,

title = {2156. Cost and Weight: When More is Less, and Less is More},

author = {R L Webb},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2156},

year  = {1993},

date = {1993-05-01},

booktitle = {52nd Annual Conference, Biloxi, Mississippi, May 24-26},

pages = {18},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Biloxi, Mississippi},

abstract = {Physical characteristics associated with proposed new products are often used as a basis for estimating their cost. In the aerospace industry in particular, parametric cost analysis (as this method is commonly called) is mostly used to develop rough order of magnitude estimates of alternative new systems during the conceptual development phase of the life cycle. Mass properties (weight) in particular have traditionally demonstrated a relatively high positive correlation to cost and have been utilized in developing parametric estimates. While the correlation between weight and cost is generally recognized, it is often misunderstood. In today's cost-conscious environment, weight-based parametric cost analyses have come under criticism as a means for estimating and comparing alternative systems. The criticisms center on two primary reasons. First, the positive correlation (increasing weight increases cost) appears to negate cost reduction approaches which trade increased weight for reduced cost, such as increased margins or using less expensive materials and fabrication processes. Second, using Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) based on historical data necessarily reflects the high cost of current standard business practices. Estimating new systems using cost models based on old systems tends to perpetuate the current high cost environment in a circular trap of self fulfilling prophecies. By itself, the estimating process leaves no room for the injection of cost reducing changes, or New Ways of Doing Business (NWDB). Much of the substance of these criticisms stems from a misunderstanding of the philosophy and proper application of weight-based estimating methods. Proper evaluations of such things as weight for cost trades can only be made when the alternatives are compared on an ''apples-to-apples,'' or equal level of performance basis. Changes in materials and processes change the basis of the relationship between weight and cost. Adjustments must be made to properly account for these changes. Estimates of the cost impacts of NWDB are most credibly made when a clear, traceable path from an historically based point of departure is drawn. Historically based CERs offer such a point of departure, which, when combined with innovative estimating techniques, can provide traceable, and thus credible, estimates incorporating NWDB. This paper describes ways in which parametric techniques can account for the trading of weight for cost and the introduction of NWDB. The techniques are illustrated with example applications of weight-based CERs used in a structures material selection trade study and the use of NWDB in the manufacturing process.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{2001,

title = {2001. An Approach to Estimating the Cost Impacts of New Ways of Doing Business on the Recurring Cost Space Transportation System},

author = {R L Webb},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2001},

year  = {1991},

date = {1991-05-01},

booktitle = {50th Annual Conference, San Diego, California, May 20-22},

pages = {24},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {San Diego, California},

abstract = {Over the past several years the technical challenges associated with providing transportation to and from space have been met with ever greater efficiency. As space has become more accessible, attention has focused more and more on reducing its high cost. Proposed new space transportation systems such as the Advanced Launch System (ALS), NASP Derived Vehicle (NDV), Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO), and others, all have as a primary stated goal in some form a significant reduction in the recurring cost of providing space transportation on a routine basis. The reduced costs forecast for these new systems are generally projected to be achieved through the introduction of new technologies, different program structures and/or philosophies, or other innovations which deviate from the standard practices, or Business As Usual (BAU), currently employed in providing space transportation. In the initial concept development stages of programs such as these, it falls to the parametric cost analyst to attempt to forecast at a top level the potential magnitude of the recurring cost reductions to be achieved through the incorporation of these innovations, or ''New Ways of Doing Business'' (NWDB). The focus of this paper is to outline a methodology for estimating reductions in the recurring cost of space transportation systems resulting from the introduction of NWDB. The methodology described can be used as a means to develop a traceable, visible, and thus, credible top level estimate of the cost impacts resulting from the incorporation of specific NWDB in the operation of space transportation systems.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{1908,

title = {1908. Rotorcraft Structural Weight and Cost Aspects},

author = {W Z Stepniewski},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1908},

year  = {1989},

date = {1989-05-01},

booktitle = {48th Annual Conference, Alexandria, Virginia, May 22-24},

pages = {13},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Alexandria, Virginia},

abstract = {With few exceptions, such as the purchase of a Rolls-Royce, Ferrari, or a luxury yacht, acquisition and operational costs usually play an important role in decision-making regarding buying and putting into operation a transport vehicle. From the first appearance of rotary-wing aircraft as a practical flying machine, their cost aspects have been an important factor in establishing their competitive position with respect to the ground and water-surface vehicles on one hand and fixed-wing aircraft on the other. Consequently, the continuous, although not always successful, quest for lowering both acquisition and operating costs of helicopters and tilt-rotors can be detected throughout the whole history of rotorcraft development. Obviously, the subject of rotorcraft cost is quite complicated and includes many facets representing various technologies and techniques. This paper tries to present in a rather sketchy, broad-brush way, a single aspect of this many-sided entity. It attempts to show some relationships existing between the empty or structural weight and various literal and figurative costs of rotary-wing aircraft.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{1854,

title = {1854. The Importance of Weight in Changing a Cost Estimating Environment},

author = {L W Gordon},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1854},

year  = {1988},

date = {1988-05-01},

booktitle = {47th Annual Conference, Plymouth, Michigan, May 23-25},

pages = {21},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Plymouth, Michigan},

abstract = {Until recently, bottoms-up has been the primary method of cost estimating in the aerospace industry. Parametric estimates were used internally only for trade studies and should-cost analyses and were not submitted with the proposal. Lockheed is working to reverse the cost estimating process, i.e., parametric as the primary method and bottoms-up as the last resort. This paper presents one such method and addresses how yesterday?s databases can be adjusted for today?s technology. This paper is intended to demonstrate that parametric cost estimating is being implemented as a primary method and, as a result, weight as a cost driver is extremely important.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{1855,

title = {1855. Using Cost Weight Curves in Parametric Cost Predictions},

author = {B Barrus},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1855},

year  = {1988},

date = {1988-05-01},

booktitle = {47th Annual Conference, Plymouth, Michigan, May 23-25},

pages = {58},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Plymouth, Michigan},

abstract = {The goal of this paper is to suggest a methodology of using cost-weight curves to make better cost estimates employing improved technologies. The methodology involves logarithmic regression analysis of categorized ized historical cost, weight, and performance data over time for a selected system. New system performance requirements are thereafter used as predictors for adjusting the slope and y-axis intercept of the cost-weight curves. The curves are used to make the cost estimate, based upon the estimated weight of the new system. As a test, automobile average fuel economy standards are regressed against cost-weight curves of 1970 through 1980 model year Oldsmobile 2-door coupes. The resulting cost model is then used to predict the cost-weight curve for 1983 model year Oldsmobile 2-door coupes. Interesting parametric patterns are revealed which may have widespread application, although further analysis is required. The resulting prediction curve misses the target cost measurement by -7.6%.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{1856,

title = {1856. Cost Estimating Methods for Advanced Space Systems},

author = {K Cyr},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1856},

year  = {1988},

date = {1988-05-01},

booktitle = {47th Annual Conference, Plymouth, Michigan, May 23-25},

pages = {16},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Plymouth, Michigan},

abstract = {The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is responsible for developing much of the nation?s future space technology. Cost estimates for new programs are required early in the planning process so that decisions can be made accurately. Because of the long lead times required to develop space hardware, the cost estimates are frequently required 10-15 years before the program delivers hardware. The system design in conceptual phases of a program is usually only vaguely defined and the technology used is often state of the art or beyond. These factors combine to make cost estimating for conceptual programs very challenging. This paper describes an effort to develop parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{1857,

title = {1857. Estimating Life Cycle Cost},

author = {D Horning},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1857},

year  = {1988},

date = {1988-05-01},

booktitle = {47th Annual Conference, Plymouth, Michigan, May 23-25},

pages = {53},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Plymouth, Michigan},

abstract = {Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is becoming an increasingly important element in the development and selection of aircraft programs. It is used by both industry and the customers to evaluate and select between alternatives. It is also used as a primary selection criteria for trade analysis since it is the only factor that combines all other elements of the program with a single value. Primary significance occurs between the application of resources in the aquisition phases and the resultant cost of operation over the life of the program. The models used to estimate the LCC must provide reasonable costs in which there is considerable confidence by both the contractor and the customer. It must be developed at a level which can provide significance between alternate configurations, systems and equipments and operational modes. LCC as presented in this paper is developed parametrically using hours and material dollars as independant variables and cost driving configuration and program factors as independant variables. These variables are incorporated into cost estimating relationships (CERs) using statistical multiple regression analysis. the CERs take the form of HOURS = C * V1^E1 * V2^E2 * V3^E3 * V4^E4 where V is the independant varible and E is the exponent. As will be seen, size is a predominant variable when considering a broad spectrum of aircraft types. Weight consistently provides the highest correlation coefficients as a proxy for size and is used throughout the model. The group level weight statement is generally used. With the increasing use of advancedmaterials, with their reduced weight, it must be remembered that the historical aircraft used in the databases are primarily metalic and therfore, since size (weight proxy) is a predominant variable the composite weights must be translated to the equivalent metalic weight. In developing LCC the interaction between the weight engineer and LCC analyst is critical. Both must totally understand the configuration and the LCC analyst must completely understand the weight statement since it tends to provide much of the configuration definition. Many of the elements of LCC must be adjusted for advanced materials and technologies and program peculiarities. These adjustments come from consultation with weight engineers and other technical personnel and require a close and continuing interface with them. The LCC estimates for future programs can be no better than the judgments related to weights and other advanced requirements. The LCC is continually reviewed and refined throughout the developement process, as is the configuration and the weight.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{1785,

title = {1785. Aircraft Economics as a Constraint in the Design and Manufacturing of Commercial Aircraft},

author = {R H Trelease},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1785},

year  = {1987},

date = {1987-05-01},

booktitle = {46th Annual Conference, Seattle, Washington, May 18-20},

pages = {35},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Seattle, Washington},

abstract = {(None)},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{1781,

title = {1781. The Vital Role of Accurate Weight Estimation in Space Station Program Planning},

author = {H C Dr. Mandell},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1781},

year  = {1987},

date = {1987-05-01},

booktitle = {46th Annual Conference, Seattle, Washington, May 18-20},

pages = {17},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Seattle, Washington},

abstract = {The planning of the Space Station program has been technically and programmatically more complex than that of many previous NASA programs. Reasons for this are many, as well as the conflicting requirements resulting from the demands of the enormous community of potential users. To compound the problem, at the points of key decisions, NASA was in a period of leadership transition, which further contributed to program instability. Despite strong Administration and Congressional support, it is yet unclear that a Space Station program will emerge at all. This paper demonstrates only a single dimension of the planning issue, i.e., the potential uncertainties induced on program cost (and hence on program schedule planning) by errors in weight estimation, and by the absence of standards in weight and cost estimation work breakdown structures. It is shown that errors in weight estimation of the same order of magnitude as those experienced in past NASA programs will result in cost and budget errors in the order of ten to twenty percent, which in some programs would be considered reasonable. However, because of the extremely constrained nature of the Space Station program, such errors could mean delays in expected launch dates in the order of years, and hence could place the program in political jeopardy.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{1782,

title = {1782. The Role of Weight in Parametric Cost Estimating},

author = {B E Fad},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1782},

year  = {1987},

date = {1987-05-01},

booktitle = {46th Annual Conference, Seattle, Washington, May 18-20},

pages = {18},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Seattle, Washington},

abstract = {Parametric cost estimating is often used to support Engineering analysis is shaping system designs. In those systems designed for flight, weight is frequently used as a cost parameter. This paper defines parametric cost estimating through the context of traditional, bottoms-up cost estimating. The importance of weight, its proper qualifications and inter-relationships with other parameters are developed through examples of parametric cost modeling of automobile seats, and aircraft vertical fin assembly, and an advanced electronic signal processor. As the topic is developed, characteristics of parametric modeling and an appreciation for the engineering contributions to it will become evident. It should be recognized that parametric cost modeling offers the Weight Engineer an ally in attacking one of his greatest challenges for the future - designing hardware that is not only mission capable, but affordable as well. This paper is intended to stimulate the Weight Engineer towards the use of parametric cost modeling as a tool for design.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

@inproceedings{1784,

title = {1784. Use of a Detail Cost Model to Perform Conceptual Phase Cost Analysis},

author = {P Schwartz},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1784},

year  = {1987},

date = {1987-05-01},

booktitle = {46th Annual Conference, Seattle, Washington, May 18-20},

pages = {13},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Seattle, Washington},

abstract = {The PRICE H model was originally developed as a ''black box'' level cost analysis tool. Due to the nature of the model, with the proper calibrations, it can be used at higher levels of the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The Design-To-Cost philosophy establishes the need to perform meaningful cost verses system parameter evaluations early in a programs life cycle (i.e., the conceptual phase). Using multiple models, at this point in the design cycle, allows the confidence level of our results to be established. In search of addition up-front models, a methodology was developed to determine subsystem level manufacturing complexity values to enable the use of PRICE H during this conceptual phase. The method also allow new technologies to be factored into an historic database model by effecting subsystem complexity factors. In developing the methodology, interesting insights evolved as to the estimating sensitivity of PRICE H in the RDT&E phase.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}