3743. FVA30: Application of Probabilistic Mass Estimation Methods to the Design of a Touring Motor Glider
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Paper
Abstract
In early design phases the mass and position of many aircraft components is uncertain. So, it is not possible to accurately calculate key aircraft parameters such as the total mass and center of gravity. A possible approach to deal with these uncertainties is using pessimistic and optimistic estimations for every component. This approach considers only the boundary values and can therefore lead to very conservative decisions. To reduce the uncertainty of the calculations and get a better estimation of the expected mass properties probabilistic mass estimation methods can be used.The FVA 30 is a hybrid electric motorglider being developed by students at the Flugwissenschaftliche Vereinigung Aachen (FVA). The configuration of the prototype features two electric engines in the V-tail unit and is therefore especially sensitive to mass changes. In this paper the usage of probabilistic mass estimation and propagation methods to design the FVA 30 is presented. Several methods to estimate probability distributions of different components are described. The propagation of uncertainties is calculated using Monte Carlo simulations with random sampling. At last, the probabilistic calculation results are discussed and compared with the ones using a deterministic method.
