3720. A Practical and Proactive Way of Managing Weight & Center of Gravity Uncertainty Using the Successive Principle

Paper

Abstract

One of the challenges in mass properties is how to handle the uncertainty in an early stage estimate of weight and center of gravity (CG) and its impact throughout the life of the project. Risk is sometimes defined as the product of consequence multiplied by uncertainty, and for many shipbuilding projects the consequence of missing the mark on either the weight or CG can be dramatic. That makes reducing uncertainty essential to avoiding a high-risk project.Dr. Steen Lichtenberg started as early as the 1970’s to develop a method for proactive management of uncertainty using the successive principle. The method is a practical way to manage opportunities and risk. The underlying philosophy states that realism in forecasts requires a qualitative phase as well as a quantitative phase. In the qualitative phase, an analysis group of people should be established, while the quantitative phase should establish a basic structure of main items, followed by a systematic detailing process and an action plan.While the method typically handles uncertainties related to the economics of large projects, this paper will look at how the principles and processes involved can be applied to the weight and CG challenges during ship design and construction. A general introduction to the successive principle will be given, the basic applications will be presented, and discussions and examples of use cases will be included. The goal is to add another tool to the toolbox of the weight engineer to help secure successful projects.