3379. Mass Properties Using Statistical Techniques

Paper

Abstract

Over the past 15 or so years, Mass Properties analysis techniques have used the same basic philosophy for calculations. The prediction of mass through a program life cycle can be calculated by adding contingency to a basic mass calculation. As the program matures, this contingency decreases until the program is completed. The contingency schedule is based on a statistical analysis of historical data gathered from the satellite industry.
The mass growth tends to follow a standard bell curve. By applying the mean of historical mass growth, statistically there is a 50% chance being under the allocation. The single prediction does not provide insight into the uncertainty of that value. A simple method using the distribution of the historical mass growth to provide a prediction would offer that insight. This prediction, applied at the part level, is presented in statistical terms, easily understood by anyone with a technical background.