2323. Risk Analysis of Weight Estimates for a Launch Vehicle
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Paper
Abstract
The interrelationship between cost and weight has long been recognized by the aircraft, aerospace and the shipbuilding industries. Since weight is an important input to cost estimating, the accuracy of weight estimates is critical for developing accurate cost estimates. In these industries, lack of data often hampers the conceptual design engineer when preparing a weight estimate. In the aerospace industry, the launch vehicle conceptual design engineer must develop a variety of estimates based on new technologies with little or no historical data to rely upon. One such estimating task is weight estimation using weight estimating relationships (WER’s) encompassing various design parameters. This paper will describe a methodology used to elicit the weight expert’s knowledge in usable form and will address the difficulties encountered along the way. The methodology results in a data set that includes the expert’s judgment of uncertainty for the design parameters. The data set permits the execution of a risk analysis for a launch vehicle weight estimate. the risk analysis simulation results can then be used as an input for cost estimating.
