1855. Using Cost Weight Curves in Parametric Cost Predictions
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Paper
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to suggest a methodology of using cost-weight curves to make better cost estimates employing improved technologies. The methodology involves logarithmic regression analysis of categorized ized historical cost, weight, and performance data over time for a selected system. New system performance requirements are thereafter used as predictors for adjusting the slope and y-axis intercept of the cost-weight curves. The curves are used to make the cost estimate, based upon the estimated weight of the new system. As a test, automobile average fuel economy standards are regressed against cost-weight curves of 1970 through 1980 model year Oldsmobile 2-door coupes. The resulting cost model is then used to predict the cost-weight curve for 1983 model year Oldsmobile 2-door coupes. Interesting parametric patterns are revealed which may have widespread application, although further analysis is required. The resulting prediction curve misses the target cost measurement by -7.6%.
