776. Launch Vehicle Weight Growth Cost Effects as Determined Using a Market Analysis Program (MAP)

Paper

Abstract

Determining a relationship between launch vehicle stage jettison weight and total cost is evaluated. This relationship is usually based only on the vehicle’s initial mission. A more realistic approach is presented which: (1) evaluates all projected missions for the stage; and (2) then determines what effect changes in jettison weight will have in the total cost of performing these missions. This requires: (1) knowledge of launch vehicle costs as a function of production and launch rates, (2) launch vehicle performance data, (3) mission schedules, and (4) payload weights and mission requirements. A computer simulation evaluates these parameters and optimizes the selection of launch vehicles. The market analysis program (MAP) developed by the Convair Division of General Dynamics performs these functions and typical program input data is described.
The paper analyzes several stages by varying jettison weight to show changes in optimum launch vehicle selection and resulting total costs. Stage recurring costs are also varied inversely as a function of jettison weight to indicate this effect on total cost. Significant increases in total cost are shown to occur with stage jettison weight growth. Sensitivity of cost-to-payload weight growth is also investigated. Additional applications for the market analysis approach are: (1) cost evaluation of various launch vehicle mixes or inventories, (2) evaluation of launch vehicle utilization or market potential, and (3) performance improvement evaluation. Market analysis is shown to be an excellent tool to aid in launch vehicle management decisions and weight control decisions.