762. Constrained Regression Analysis – A New Approach to Statistical Equation Development

Paper

Abstract

It is the objective of this paper to present a new approach to statistical weight estimation equation development. This approach is based on a method of constrained regression analysis recently developed at VAD. Constants, exponents, and factors may be constrained to fall within a desired range while analyzing statistical data with a least squares curve fitting routine. Application of this method results in equations which more accurately predict the influence of applicable aircraft design parameters on aircraft weight.
The following paper contains a brief description of the mathematical theory and operational techniques developed as well as a practical problem application. Development of a weight estimation equation for the vertical tail of a cargo/transport aircraft was used as the practical application. Equations were developed by constrained regression analysis and by conventional methods. Investigation of the results obtained in this applied problem demonstrates the superiority of this method over those currently used. Sufficient information is given within the paper and references to allow development of this method for use by the reader.
It is felt that this paper presents a significant contribution to the science of weight engineering. It is recommended that any weight engineer concerned with preliminary aircraft weight estimation give serious attention to the material presented in this paper. After reading this paper, the reader should recognize the method as an important and outstanding new engineering tool with application throughout the aircraft industry.