2046. Aircraft Weight Confidence Assessment

Paper

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present a technique that determines confidence levels of estimated weight data. The paper outlines a procedure and applies it to a fuel system weight breakdown. Using the fuel system example as a guide, determining confidence in an estimated aircraft weight could be found. The initial background and analysis for the method is presented with results of a confidence analysis using a ”bottoms-up” system estimated weight. This method provides the foundation of a plan for tracking confidence of estimated aircraft weight throughout development Confidence levels can be updated continually and reviewed with management during design development. Design maturity is reflected in the possible variation of the itemized weight used in the models. By combining weight variations of each item and using simulation software, confidence levels for the total group weight can be determined. The paper concludes that confidence levels help set realistic goals, identify areas for possible weight reduction, and identify problem areas in parametric estimates or design/technology maturity.