2001. An Approach to Estimating the Cost Impacts of New Ways of Doing Business on the Recurring Cost Space Transportation System

Paper

Abstract

Over the past several years the technical challenges associated with providing transportation to and from space have been met with ever greater efficiency. As space has become more accessible, attention has focused more and more on reducing its high cost. Proposed new space transportation systems such as the Advanced Launch System (ALS), NASP Derived Vehicle (NDV), Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO), and others, all have as a primary stated goal in some form a significant reduction in the recurring cost of providing space transportation on a routine basis. The reduced costs forecast for these new systems are generally projected to be achieved through the introduction of new technologies, different program structures and/or philosophies, or other innovations which deviate from the standard practices, or Business As Usual (BAU), currently employed in providing space transportation. In the initial concept development stages of programs such as these, it falls to the parametric cost analyst to attempt to forecast at a top level the potential magnitude of the recurring cost reductions to be achieved through the incorporation of these innovations, or ”New Ways of Doing Business” (NWDB). The focus of this paper is to outline a methodology for estimating reductions in the recurring cost of space transportation systems resulting from the introduction of NWDB. The methodology described can be used as a means to develop a traceable, visible, and thus, credible top level estimate of the cost impacts resulting from the incorporation of specific NWDB in the operation of space transportation systems.