661. Best Estimate Method of Determining Space Vehicle Ignition and Cutoff Masses
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Paper
Abstract
This paper presents a new method of determining a best estimate of vehicle ignition and cutoff masses which was developed for use in the Saturn program. The text covers the derivation of basic principles and applications to the Saturn S-IVB Stage flight evaluation.
The best estimate method is a statistical analysis of independent mass measurement systems combined to arrive at the most probable value for ignition mass and cutoff mass and their respective accuracies. The analysis is essentially a three-dimensional, statistical analysis, developing a joint probability density function from which a solution is determined.
This method was developed to utilize the data produced by each measurement system in its purest form. Some measurement systems provide a unique value for ignition mass and cutoff mass. Other measurement systems, such as engine propellant consumption analysis and trajectory reconstruction, inherently provide a linear relationship between ignition and cutoff mass. The best estimate method combines the unique values with these linear relationships to compute the most probable values for ignition andc utoff mass. This technique provides the optimum statistical evaluation of flight-vehicle ignition and cutoff mass by constraining each measurement system to its intrinsic evaluation capability.
